Compare the temperature increase between 1975-1998 main warming period in the latter part of the 20th century for both POGA H and POGA C:

  • POGA H: 0.68C natural plus anthropogenic
  • POGA C: 0.4C natural internal variability only

I’m not sure how good my eyeball estimates are, and you can pick other start/end dates. But no matter what, I am coming up with natural internal variability associated accounting for significantly MORE than half of the observed warming.

via Pause tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling | Climate Etc..

As the climate models include more physical effects, the case for lukewarmism gets stronger. But note Xie’s response to Curry at the end. In any case, the observed climate behavior is falling outside the range of model runs without ‘prescribing’ temperature fits over roughly 8% of the globe.

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