What’s Up Next? The GISP2 climate record

When I first started looking at GISP2 it seemed to me that there were several places in the record that looked very much like the sharp spike in temperature we’re experiencing now.  The obvious thing thing to do seems to be to overlay them for an easy comparison:


Here I’ve plotted the 400 years following each minimum in the record that leads to a sustained sharp rise.  There were 10 of them; the first five are plotted in cyan and the more recent 5 in blue.  You can see that in the latter part of the Holocene the traces settle down from the wilder swings of the earlier period.  Even so, every curve, even the early ones, seems to have an inflection — at least a change in slope — somewhere between 200 and 250 years after the minimum.

J. Storrs Hall is a very smart guy. He has taken a good look at the historical record, not simply computer model runs. Read his post over at WUWT where he compares the modern temperature record with the Greenland ice core reconstruction for the Holocene. The ice core reconstruction gives actual climate behavior. It isn’t a computer climate model run. You can see that Gaia’s behavior isn’t unprecedented; and I we can be sure the Neanderthals weren’t driving SUVs or burning coal for electric power.

Remember, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. I believe our climate has been warming since the end of the Little Ice Age. I’m less convinced that CO2 is the only, or even the major, driver of that warming. And as you can see above, the warming trend is not unprecedented.

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